Diesel vs. Petrol: Which Powertrain Holds Value Better?
The Big Powertrain Question: Diesel or Petrol?
The choice between diesel and petrol is more than a matter of personal taste. In times of driving bans, rising fuel prices, and the shift to electric mobility, this decision has significant financial implications. Our data analysis shows which powertrain holds better value in the long term.
Value Loss Comparison: The Numbers
5-Year Depreciation by Powertrain
| Brand/Model | Diesel | Petrol | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW E60 530d vs 530i | -42% | -38% | Petrol +4% |
| BMW E90 320d vs 320i | -48% | -44% | Petrol +4% |
| Mercedes W211 E320 CDI vs E350 | -45% | -40% | Petrol +5% |
| Mercedes W221 S320 CDI vs S350 | -52% | -46% | Petrol +6% |
| Audi C6 A6 3.0 TDI vs 3.2 FSI | -44% | -41% | Petrol +3% |
Current Average Prices March 2025
| Model | Diesel Variant | Price | Petrol Variant | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW E39 | 530d | €9,800 | 530i | €8,900 |
| BMW E60 | 530d | €11,200 | 530i | €10,400 |
| Mercedes W210 | E320 CDI | €6,500 | E320 | €5,800 |
| Mercedes W211 | E320 CDI | €8,900 | E350 | €8,200 |
| Audi C5 A6 | 2.5 TDI | €5,200 | 2.8 | €4,600 |
The Turning Point: Why Petrol is Catching Up
Factors Behind Diesel’s Decline
-
Environmental Zones and Driving Bans
- Euro 4 diesels increasingly banned
- Uncertainty for buyers in major cities
- Accelerated depreciation
-
Negative Media Coverage
- “Dieselgate” aftermath
- Political discussions
- Buyer uncertainty
-
Rising Maintenance Costs
- DPF regeneration/replacement
- AdBlue system (newer models)
- More complex emissions treatment
Factors Behind Petrol’s Rise
-
Youngtimer Bonus
- Classic six-cylinders in demand
- Collector interest rising
- Emotional value
-
Urban Usability
- No driving bans
- Lower environmental zone risks
- Higher resale value
-
Simpler Technology
- Fewer wear parts
- Cheaper repairs
- Longer lifespan
Price Development 2020-2025
BMW 5 Series (E60) Comparison
| Year | 530d Average | 530i Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | €9,500 | €7,800 | +€1,700 (Diesel) |
| 2021 | €10,200 | €8,500 | +€1,700 (Diesel) |
| 2022 | €11,000 | €9,400 | +€1,600 (Diesel) |
| 2023 | €11,100 | €9,900 | +€1,200 (Diesel) |
| 2024 | €11,000 | €10,200 | +€800 (Diesel) |
| 2025 | €11,200 | €10,400 | +€800 (Diesel) |
Trend: Diesel’s price advantage is continuously shrinking.
Mercedes E-Class (W211) Comparison
| Year | E320 CDI | E350 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | €7,800 | €6,200 | +€1,600 (Diesel) |
| 2021 | €8,400 | €7,000 | +€1,400 (Diesel) |
| 2022 | €9,200 | €7,800 | +€1,400 (Diesel) |
| 2023 | €9,100 | €8,000 | +€1,100 (Diesel) |
| 2024 | €8,900 | €8,100 | +€800 (Diesel) |
| 2025 | €8,900 | €8,200 | +€700 (Diesel) |
When Each Powertrain Makes Sense
Diesel Recommended For:
| Criterion | Details |
|---|---|
| Annual mileage | > 25,000 km |
| Usage profile | Primarily highway/long distance |
| Residence | Rural, no environmental zone |
| Ownership period | > 5 years (plan for driving bans) |
| Model | Euro 6 or better |
Petrol Recommended For:
| Criterion | Details |
|---|---|
| Annual mileage | < 15,000 km |
| Usage profile | City and short trips |
| Residence | Major city with environmental zones |
| Ownership period | Any duration |
| Interest | Classic/collector potential |
Special Case: Performance Models
M and AMG Engines
Different rules apply to performance models:
| Model | Powertrain | Average Price | Value Stability |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW E39 M5 | V8 Petrol | €36,500 | Very high |
| BMW E60 M5 | V10 Petrol | €38,500 | High |
| Mercedes W211 E55 AMG | V8 Supercharged | €28,900 | Very high |
| Audi RS4 B5 | V6 BiTurbo | €47,200 | Extremely high |
Conclusion: Performance petrol cars are more value-stable than any diesel.
Mileage and Depreciation
Diesel-Specific Risks
| Mileage | Diesel Risk | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| 150,000 km | DPF wear | €1,500-3,000 |
| 200,000 km | Injectors | €2,000-4,000 |
| 250,000 km | Turbocharger | €1,500-3,500 |
Petrol-Specific Risks
| Mileage | Petrol Risk | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| 150,000 km | VANOS (BMW) | €800-1,500 |
| 200,000 km | Timing chain | €1,000-2,500 |
| 250,000 km | Valve clearance | €500-1,000 |
Future Forecast 2025-2030
Expected Development
| Period | Diesel Trend | Petrol Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-2026 | -5% to -8% annually | -2% to -4% annually |
| 2027-2028 | -8% to -12% annually | -3% to -5% annually |
| 2029-2030 | Strongly falling | Youngtimer stabilization |
Our Recommendations
Buy Now (Petrol):
- BMW E39 530i - Classic potential
- Mercedes W124 E320 - Legendary status
- Audi C5 A6 2.8 - Underrated
Wait (Diesel):
- Older Euro 4 diesels - Prices continue falling
- High-mileage diesels - Maintenance risk
Conclusion
The data speaks clearly: petrol cars are catching up in value retention and in some cases already surpassing diesel models. For buyers with moderate mileage and urban residence, petrol is the better choice. Diesel remains attractive only for high-mileage drivers with rural profiles - and even there, the advantage is shrinking.
All data based on our continuous market analysis. As of: March 17, 2025