Q4 2024: What to Expect
The fourth quarter is traditionally an exciting time for the used car market. Between year-end discounts and winter effects, opportunities arise for smart buyers. Our forecast for the coming months.
Overall Market Forecast
Expected Price Development Q4 2024
| Segment | Forecast | Confidence |
|---|
| Youngtimers (20+ years) | +3-5% | High |
| Mid-class (10-20 years) | -1 to +1% | Medium |
| Young used (<5 years) | -2-4% | High |
| Luxury/Sports cars | -3-5% (seasonal) | High |
Monthly Expectations
| Month | Trend | Buying Opportunity |
|---|
| November | Demand decreases | Good |
| December | Year-end discounts | Very good |
| January 2025 | New year adjustment | Good |
Brand-Specific Forecasts
BMW
| Model Series | Q4 Forecast | Reasoning |
|---|
| E38/E39/E46 | +4-6% | Youngtimer demand |
| E60/E90 | Stable | Market balance |
| F-Series | -2-3% | New car pressure |
| M-Models | +3-5% | Collector market |
BMW Buying Recommendation:
- E46 330i/Ci: Last chance under €15,000
- E39 540i: V8 bargain in winter
- E90 335i: N54 engine at entry price
Mercedes-Benz
| Model Series | Q4 Forecast | Reasoning |
|---|
| W140 | +5-7% | Classic status |
| W210/W211 | Stable | Mature market |
| W220/W221 | -2-4% | Maintenance costs |
| AMG models | +2-4% | Enthusiast demand |
Mercedes Buying Recommendation:
- W140 S500/S600: Buy before further increase
- W210 E55 AMG: Underrated performance
- W211 E350: Reliable everyday classic
Audi
| Model Series | Q4 Forecast | Reasoning |
|---|
| B5/C5 | +3-5% | Quattro renaissance |
| B6/B7/C6 | Stable | Mainstream segment |
| D2/D3 A8 | +2-4% | Luxury bargain |
| RS models | +4-6% | Limited production |
Audi Buying Recommendation:
- S4 B5: Biturbo legend at bargain prices
- A6 C5 allroad: Versatile classic
- TT 8N 225: Design icon on the rise
Seasonal Factors
Winter Tire Effect
| Feature | Price Premium Q4 |
|---|
| Winter tires included | +€800-1,500 |
| AWD/Quattro | +5-8% demand |
| Auxiliary heater | +€500-1,000 |
| Heated seats | +€200-400 |
Summer Vehicles in Winter
Convertibles and sports cars show typical Q4 discounts:
| Vehicle Type | Discount vs. Summer |
|---|
| Convertibles | -10-15% |
| Roadsters | -8-12% |
| Sports cars (RWD) | -5-8% |
Economic Factors
Positive Factors
| Factor | Impact |
|---|
| Interest rate development | Stable, slightly positive |
| Fuel prices | Moderate recovery |
| Job market | Solid |
Negative Factors
| Factor | Impact |
|---|
| New car discounts | Pressure on young used cars |
| Environmental zones | Diesel below Euro 5 affected |
| Insurance costs | Slightly rising |
Investment Potential Q4
Top Picks for Value Growth
| Model | Current Avg | Target 2025 | Potential |
|---|
| BMW E46 M3 | €35,000 | €40,000 | +14% |
| Mercedes W140 S600 | €25,000 | €30,000 | +20% |
| Audi RS4 B5 | €43,000 | €48,000 | +12% |
| BMW E39 M5 | €32,000 | €36,000 | +13% |
Risks to Avoid
| Risk | Affected Models |
|---|
| Diesel driving bans | Euro 4 and older |
| High maintenance costs | W220 ABC, E60 545i |
| Electrification | Diesel without particulate filter |
Strategies for Buyers
Buy Now (November)
- Youngtimers with complete history
- Winter vehicles (AWD, diesel)
- Dealer vehicles with inventory pressure
Wait for December
- Year-end bargains at dealers
- Summer vehicles at winter prices
- High-priced models with negotiation potential
Postpone to 2025
- New model years (better selection)
- Electric vehicles (price drop expected)
- If specific model not available
Dealer vs. Private in Q4
| Aspect | Dealer | Private |
|---|
| Prices | -5-10% possible | -10-15% possible |
| Warranty | Statutory warranty | None |
| Negotiation | Year-end pressure | Individual |
| Recommendation | December optimal | Nov-Dec optimal |
Conclusion and Recommendations
Q4 2024 offers excellent buying opportunities for informed buyers. Our recommendations:
- November: Secure youngtimers and winter vehicles now
- December: Wait for year-end dealer promotions
- Generally: Prioritize documentation and condition over price
The combination of seasonal weakness and year-end pressure creates a buyer-friendly environment. Take advantage of the opportunity!
Forecasts based on our market analysis and historical data. No guarantee for future developments.