Q1 2024 Market Review: Prices, Trends and Forecasts
Q1 2024: The Used Car Market Overview
The first quarter of 2024 brought interesting developments in the premium used car segment. We analyse the key trends and provide an outlook for the coming months.
Market Overview Q1 2024
Overall Development
| Metric | Q1 2024 | vs. Q4 2023 | vs. Q1 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Price | €14,850 | +2.1% | +4.8% |
| Listings | -8% | -12% | -5% |
| Days on Market | 42 days | -6 days | -3 days |
| Demand Index | 108 | +5 points | +12 points |
Price Development by Brand
| Brand | Q1 Average | Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | €15,200 | +3.2% | Rising |
| Mercedes | €14,600 | +1.8% | Stable-rising |
| Audi | €14,750 | +2.4% | Rising |
Winners and Losers Q1 2024
Top 5 Value Increases
| Model | Price Q4 2023 | Price Q1 2024 | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW Z3 2.8i | €13,200 | €14,500 | +9.8% |
| Mercedes SLK R170 | €10,800 | €11,900 | +10.2% |
| Audi TT 8N Roadster | €9,500 | €10,400 | +9.5% |
| BMW E30 Convertible | €18,500 | €20,200 | +9.2% |
| Mercedes W124 Convertible | €22,000 | €23,800 | +8.2% |
Summary: Convertibles and roadsters show the strongest gains - seasonally driven by the approaching spring season.
Top 5 Price Declines
| Model | Price Q4 2023 | Price Q1 2024 | Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW X5 E53 3.0d | €12,500 | €11,200 | -10.4% |
| Mercedes ML W163 | €8,800 | €7,900 | -10.2% |
| Audi Q7 4.2 TDI | €16,500 | €15,200 | -7.9% |
| BMW 530d E60 | €11,800 | €11,100 | -5.9% |
| Mercedes E320 CDI W211 | €10,200 | €9,700 | -4.9% |
Summary: Large SUVs and diesel models continue to lose value - a trend that continues.
Detailed Analysis by Brand
BMW
| Segment | Average Price | Q1 Development |
|---|---|---|
| Sedans | €12,400 | +1.8% |
| Touring | €11,800 | +2.2% |
| Convertible/Roadster | €16,500 | +8.5% |
| SUV | €14,200 | -4.2% |
| M Models | €38,500 | +3.8% |
Highlights:
- E46 Touring stable, good entry prices
- Z3/Z4 significantly increased
- X5 E53 under pressure
Mercedes
| Segment | Average Price | Q1 Development |
|---|---|---|
| Sedans | €11,200 | +1.2% |
| Estate | €10,800 | +1.5% |
| Convertible/Roadster | €14,800 | +7.8% |
| SUV | €12,600 | -5.8% |
| AMG | €42,200 | +2.4% |
Highlights:
- SLK R170 in high demand
- W210 E-Class price stable
- ML W163 continuing to fall
Audi
| Segment | Average Price | Q1 Development |
|---|---|---|
| Sedans | €10,600 | +2.1% |
| Avant | €11,200 | +2.4% |
| Convertible/Roadster | €12,800 | +8.2% |
| SUV | €15,400 | -3.5% |
| RS Models | €35,800 | +4.2% |
Highlights:
- TT 8N Roadster on the rise
- A4 B6/B7 stable base
- Q7 losing value
Regional Differences
Price Comparison by Region
| Region | Index (National avg = 100) | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Germany | 105 | Slightly rising |
| Western Germany | 102 | Stable |
| Northern Germany | 97 | Stable |
| Eastern Germany | 94 | Slightly rising |
Tip: Buying in the East, selling in the South can mean 10% price difference.
Mileage Analysis
Impact on Price
| Mileage | Price Index | Demand |
|---|---|---|
| Under 100,000 km | 115% | Very High |
| 100,000-150,000 km | 100% | High |
| 150,000-200,000 km | 85% | Medium |
| Over 200,000 km | 70% | Low |
Q2 2024 Forecast
Expected Developments
| Segment | Q2 Forecast | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| Convertibles | +8-12% | Avoid now |
| Sedans | +1-2% | Buy now |
| Estates | +1-3% | Buy now |
| SUVs | -2-5% | Wait |
| Diesel | -3-5% | Buy now |
Buying Recommendations April 2024
Buy Now:
| Model | Current Price | Q2 Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| BMW E39 525i | €7,500 | Stable |
| Mercedes W210 E280 | €6,800 | Stable |
| Audi A4 B6 1.8T | €5,500 | Slightly rising |
| BMW X5 E53 3.0d | €11,200 | Continuing to fall |
Wait Until Autumn:
| Model | Current Price | Autumn Expectation |
|---|---|---|
| BMW Z3 2.8i | €14,500 | €12,500 |
| Mercedes SLK R170 | €11,900 | €10,200 |
| Audi TT Roadster | €10,400 | €9,000 |
Q1 2024 Conclusion
The first quarter of 2024 shows a divided market: While convertibles and roadsters gain significantly due to seasonal factors, large SUVs and diesels remain under pressure. The overall market is stable with a slightly rising tendency.
Our Top Recommendations for April:
- BMW E46 Touring - Price stable, good everyday classic
- Mercedes W210 E-Class - Diesel and petrol attractive
- Audi A4 B6 Avant - Solid base under €6,000
Analysis based on our continuous market observation. As of: April 8, 2024