Market Outlook 2024: Forecasts for the Premium Used Car Market
2024: The Year of Decision
After a strong 2023, the question arises: What’s next? Our analysis reveals clear trends and opportunities for the coming year.
Economic Framework
Influencing Factors 2024
| Factor | Expectation | Impact on Prices |
|---|---|---|
| Interest rates | Stable to slightly declining | Neutral to positive |
| Inflation | Declining (3-4%) | Slightly positive |
| Fuel prices | Volatile | Differentiated |
| E-mobility | Growing | Classics benefit |
Economic stabilization should support the premium used car market.
Price Forecasts by Segment
Youngtimers (15-25 Years)
| Model | Current | Forecast End 2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW E38 7 Series | €15,200 | €17,500-19,000 | ↑↑ |
| BMW E39 M5 | €32,400 | €36,000-40,000 | ↑↑ |
| Mercedes W140 | €13,200 | €15,000-17,000 | ↑ |
| Audi RS4 B5 | €42,800 | €48,000-52,000 | ↑↑ |
These models are approaching classic status and benefit from historic vehicle registration at 30 years.
Modern Classics (10-15 Years)
| Model | Current | Forecast End 2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW E90 3 Series | €8,500 | €8,000-9,000 | → |
| Mercedes W211 E-Class | €7,200 | €6,800-7,500 | → |
| Audi B7 A4 | €6,800 | €6,500-7,200 | → |
This segment remains price-stable with slight fluctuations.
Daily Classics (5-10 Years)
| Model | Current | Forecast End 2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW F30 3 Series | €15,500 | €13,500-15,000 | ↓ |
| Mercedes W212 E-Class | €18,200 | €16,000-17,500 | ↓ |
| Audi B8 A4 | €14,800 | €13,000-14,500 | ↓ |
Regular depreciation continues - ideal for buyers.
Investment Opportunities 2024
Top 5 Buy Recommendations
1. BMW E38 750i/iL
- Last V12 sedan before hybridization
- Historic registration possible from 2028
- Forecast: +15-20% value increase
2. Mercedes W140 S500/S600
- Last “tank” from Stuttgart
- Excellent long-term quality
- Forecast: +12-18% value increase
3. Audi RS4 B5 Avant
- Wagon rarity with biturbo
- Limited production
- Forecast: +10-15% value increase
4. BMW E46 M3
- About to break through
- Last “analog” M3
- Forecast: +8-12% value increase
5. Mercedes CLK W209 AMG
- Still underrated
- Elegant design, V8 power
- Forecast: +5-10% value increase
Market Trends 2024
Trend 1: Flight to Tangible Assets
With ongoing economic uncertainty:
- Premium classics as value investment
- Physical assets preferred
- Emotional value as bonus
Trend 2: Electric Counter-Movement
While EVs dominate:
- Combustion engines become more desirable
- “Last of their kind” premium
- Sound and driving feel matter
Trend 3: Digitalization of Trade
Online buying becomes standard:
- Virtual inspections
- Guaranteed condition reports
- Nationwide search
Regional Price Differences
Price Level by Region
| Region | Price Level | Trend 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Germany | High (+10%) | Stable |
| Western Germany | Average | Slightly rising |
| Northern Germany | Average (-5%) | Rising |
| Eastern Germany | Low (-15%) | Strongly rising |
Tip: Search in Eastern Germany for best prices, quality often comparable.
Seasonal Buying Calendar 2024
Best Buying Times
| Month | Recommendation | Discount Potential |
|---|---|---|
| January | Very good | 5-8% |
| February | Good | 3-5% |
| March | Neutral | 0-2% |
| April | Poor | Premium possible |
| May | Poor | Premium possible |
| June | Neutral | 0-2% |
| July | Good | 3-5% |
| August | Very good | 5-8% |
| September | Poor | Premium possible |
| October | Neutral | 0-2% |
| November | Good | 3-5% |
| December | Very good | 5-10% |
Risk Factors
What to Watch in 2024
- Electronics problems: Older control systems failing
- Parts supply: Some parts becoming scarce
- Rust issues: Especially with early 2000s models
- Specialist workshops: Expertise for classics diminishing
Selling Recommendations
When to Sell?
Sell now:
- High-priced M/AMG models near peak
- Vehicles with rising maintenance costs
- Models before major market saturation
Hold:
- BMW E38 - Further potential
- Mercedes W140 - Still undervalued
- Audi RS4 B5 - Collector market growing
Conclusion
2024 promises to be an interesting year for the premium used car market. The youngtimer generation of the late 90s and early 2000s will continue to gain value, while younger used cars show normal depreciation.
Our recommendation: Invest in well-maintained examples with complete history. These vehicles will retain their value even during market fluctuations.
Forecasts based on our market analysis and may differ from actual developments. As of: January 8, 2024